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Will Bitcoin Hang Another Zero and Blast Off to $100K in 2024? The $1 Trillion Crypto Market Cap Dream
Bitcoin has rallied strongly in 2023 after emerging from the crypto winter, surging over 160% from its lows. This momentum has revived discussions around the potential for Bitcoin to reach $100,000 in the coming years.
While some see a six-figure BTC price as overly ambitious, several macro factors align to make $100K Bitcoin plausible by 2024. Let’s analyze the potential catalysts that could propel BTC to this psychological milestone.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: The Importance of Bitcoin’s Next Halving
Hardcoded into Bitcoin’s design are scheduled events known as halvings that constrict BTC’s supply issuance. About every 4 years, the block reward paid to miners gets cut in half.
The next halving is expected in April 2024, which will reduce the current 1.7% annual supply growth to just 0.85%. Past data shows halvings exert a profound price impact.
In the last two halvings, BTC’s price increased by over 100% on average in the following year as new supply slowed. A similar 100% gain from today’s $44K price would put BTC around $88K.
If a halving has pushed BTC over $80K historically, getting to $100K seems feasible under similar post-halving conditions. “Halvings turbocharge Bitcoin’s supply-demand economics,” noted market analyst Sheldon Evans. “2024 should be no different.”
Historically Low BTC Supply Availability
In addition to the halving, Bitcoin’s tradable supply on exchanges is at multi-year lows after investors accumulated heavily during the bear market.
Data shows exchange reserves peaked at 3.2 million BTC in March 2020 before the last halving. That number now stands at just 2.3 million BTC – a level not seen since 2018.
With fewer coins circulating, new demand from institutions, retail, and macro events could spark a supply shock. “The lower the exchange reserves, the more violently BTC can move up on sudden influxes of capital,” explained crypto quant analyst Carlson.
Past halvings also occurred with higher supplies, making 2024’s halving historically unique on the supply side.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: New Demand From Institutional Investors
The biggest source of new demand may come from institutional investors shovelling billions into Bitcoin through soon-to-be approved spot BTC ETFs.
Major asset managers like BlackRock ($10 trillion AUM), Vanguard ($7 trillion AUM), and Fidelity ($4.5 trillion AUM) have filed applications for spot Bitcoin ETFs that invest directly in BTC, not futures contracts.
Analysts anticipate approvals could land as soon as early 2023. This would allow pension funds, endowments, IRAs and more to gain regulated Bitcoin exposure for the first time.
“A wave of fresh institutional demand could send Bitcoin well past $100K,” said Mike Novogratz of Galaxy Digital. “Once approved, billions will flow into Bitcoin almost overnight.”
JPMorgan analysts forecast this institutional demand could push Bitcoin up to $150,000 in the long term.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Expanded Bitcoin Use Cases Boosting Value Proposition
Critics have often dismissed Bitcoin as a speculative asset. But new technical developments are rapidly expanding its utility beyond just a store of value.
Layer 2 scaling solutions like the Lightning Network now allow BTC to be used for everyday payments and web3 applications. The rise of DeFi protocols like Sovryn that enable trading, lending, and yield also unlocks new mainstream use cases.
Sidechain networks like Stacks and Liquid allow Bitcoin to support NFTs, smart contracts, and other innovations previously limited to blockchains like Ethereum.
For example, the Lightning Network can already handle 25 million transactions per second with near-zero fees, surpassing payment networks like Visa.
This newfound utility and interconnectivity strengthens Bitcoin’s value proposition and total addressable market. As Bitcoin permeates more aspects of digital economies, its network value should rise in tandem.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: The Path Isn’t Guaranteed – Execution Risks Remain
Of course, some factors could impede Bitcoin’s path to $100K in 2024. Prolonged crypto winter conditions, restrictive regulations, competition from altcoins, and technology adoption delays could all limit BTC’s upside.
Nothing is ever guaranteed in crypto. But on balance, the combination of technical and fundamental factors outlined above makes a compelling case for Bitcoin to reach well into six figures by the next halving.
And also most analysts remain cautiously optimistic about 2023/2024, forecasting a continued cyclical recovery. “Macro conditions appear favourable for Bitcoin’s supply squeeze taking prices higher,” said Antoni Trenchev of Nexo.
Of course, some factors could impede Bitcoin’s path to $100K in 2024. Prolonged crypto winter conditions, restrictive regulations, competition from altcoins, and technology adoption delays could all limit BTC’s upside
Inflation and the direction of equities/forex markets have shown a high correlation with Bitcoin in recent months. Continued easing of inflation alongside looser monetary policy could provide the backdrop for Bitcoin to thrive over the next two years.
As asset manager VanEck concluded: ” Probability and market dynamics indicate $100K Bitcoin should be expected within this bull market.” However prudent risk management remains essential no matter how optimistic the forecast is.
Conclusion for Bitcoin Price Prediction
Bitcoin has a precedent of doubling or more post-halvings, and 2024’s supply conditions look favourable for major appreciation. If emerging institutional demand via ETFs coincides, Bitcoin breaching $100K comes firmly into the realm of possibility.
Of course, challenges remain around regulatory uncertainty and growing competition from alternative crypto assets. But with its brand dominance and expanding use cases, Bitcoin remains well-positioned to ride the macro tides and potentially reach a six-figure valuation for the first time within the next 18 months.
FAQs About Bitcoin Reaching $100K
Q: How much would Bitcoin need to gain to reach $100K?
A: Bitcoin would need to gain about 130% from the current $44K level to reach a $100,000 valuation. Past yearly gains have ranged as high as 300%.
Q: When is Bitcoin’s next halving event?
A: The Bitcoin halving is expected to occur in April 2024 based on current block production schedules. This will slow issuance from 1.7% a year to 0.85%.
Q: What is a spot Bitcoin ETF?
A: A spot BTC ETF directly holds Bitcoin as an asset. This contrasts with futures-based ETFs that instead hold bitcoin futures contracts and derivatives.
Q: How could Lightning Network impact Bitcoin’s price?
A: By enabling payments and web3 applications, Lightning expands Bitcoin’s utility. More use cases tend to increase the value of the underlying network.
Q: Where can I buy Bitcoin to speculate on $100K prices?
A: Leading exchanges like Coinbase, Gemini, and Kraken allow buying BTC instantly via bank transfer or deposit. Hard wallets like Trezor let you self-custody it.
Q: What are the main risks that could prevent Bitcoin from reaching $100K?
A: Prolonged bear market conditions, restrictive government regulations, advances from competing altcoins, and delayed adoption of layer 2 tech are some key risks to the upside scenario.
Q: Should I buy Bitcoin now with expectations of $100K?
A: Bitcoin remains highly volatile, so only invest what you can afford to lose. But long-term indicators appear favourable for major appreciation by the next halving.
Disclaimer:
The content provided here does not constitute investment advice. No endorsements are made for any crypto asset mentioned. Conduct your own research before making financial decisions involving high-risk assets like Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. CryptoWini shall not be held liable for any trading losses incurred from following this commentary.
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