Bitcoin Blasts Past $60,000 Once Again, All Eyes on Retesting Its All-Time High
Bitcoin has crossed the $60,000 mark for the first time since November 2021, soaring over 40% year-to-date in 2024. The rally seems to be gathering momentum as traders pour into the cryptocurrency ahead of the halving event in April, which will slow the release of new bitcoins. Institutional investors are also jumping on the bandwagon, further propelling prices upwards.
The price spike has been fueled by the launch of US spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) earlier this year, which has opened up the asset class to mainstream investors. Here’s a deeper look at what’s driving the bitcoin bull run and whether it can retest its all-time highs soon.
What’s Powering Bitcoin’s 2024 Rally So Far
Several factors have combined to push bitcoin prices higher in 2024:
- Successful launch of spot bitcoin ETFs in the US – The approval of spot bitcoin ETFs by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on January 11 has acted as a significant catalyst. These ETFs have attracted over $5.7 billion in assets under management so far, allowing mainstream investors easy exposure to bitcoin prices without having to directly own the cryptocurrency.
- Increasing institutional adoption – Large institutions like MicroStrategy, Reddit, BlackRock, Fidelity have been buying or offering bitcoin investment products, lending further credibility. Software firm MicroStrategy purchased 3000 bitcoins worth $155 million on February 27.
- Impending bitcoin halving – Bitcoin’s supply is programmatically limited and its minting algorithm is such that the reward per block is halved roughly every 4 years to control supply. This halves the rate at which new bitcoins enter circulation. The next halving is expected in April 2024 and historically, prices have surged going into the event as demand outpaces supply.
- Declining inflation and Fed rate cut hopes – Investors are returning to risk assets like bitcoin on hopes that declining inflation will allow the Fed to start cutting interest rates later in 2024. Easy monetary policy tends to benefit non-interest-bearing assets like bitcoin.
- FOMO – As prices breach key technical levels, fear of missing out is compounding buying from traders. The rally has become self-fulfilling to some extent.
The confluence of these factors has put Bitcoin on a strong upward trajectory in 2024 so far.
Bitcoin Nears All-Time High – $68,991
Bitcoin hit an intraday high of $61,360 on February 28, nearing its all-time peak of $68,991 reached in November 2021. Going by the current momentum, most analysts expect the cryptocurrency to retest its historic highs soon.
It took Bitcoin just under 4 months to rally from ~$30,000 to current levels – the fastest growth spurt since December 2020. The value of all bitcoins in circulation has crossed $2 trillion.
Once Bitcoin decisively crosses $68,991, it would signal to the market that the crypto winter of 2022 is well and truly over. This could mark the start of the next leg of the bull run.
Can Bitcoin Sustain Momentum Above $60k?
While the short-term setup remains positive for Bitcoin, here are some factors to watch out for:
- Macroeconomic conditions – Any deterioration on the inflation or economic growth front could prompt the Fed to delay rate cuts. This could ignite a broader ‘risk-off’ mood, weighing on Bitcoin.
- Regulatory headwinds – While the SEC has allowed spot Bitcoin ETFs, regulators globally are concerned about consumer protection with regards to cryptocurrency investing. Stricter regulations could emerge as a headwind.
- Competition from altcoins – Bitcoin dominance has been declining as many altcoins like Ethereum post even stronger rallies. Flows could rotate away from Bitcoin into newer alternatives.
- Mining dynamics – Bitcoin mining is concentrated in certain geographies like China which increases centralization risks. Any adverse regulatory action internationally against miners could negatively impact Bitcoin’s ecosystem.
- Technical pullback – Bitcoin has rallied sharply in a short span of time. Profit-booking from short-term traders could result in periodic pullbacks.
While structural adoption trends look constructive for Bitcoin over the longer term, investors should brace for bouts of higher volatility in the months ahead.
Why Are Spot Bitcoin ETFs Driving Increased Adoption?
Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have opened up crypto investing to the masses much like they did for gold and stocks earlier. A spot bitcoin ETF directly holds bitcoins as the underlying asset, making it simpler than futures-based ETFs that were launched earlier.
Here are some benefits that spot Bitcoin ETFs offer:
- Easy access: Investing in spot Bitcoin ETFs is as easy as buying any stocks or ETFs through regular brokerage accounts. No need to engage with crypto exchanges.
- Lower barriers to entry: Bitcoin ETFs allow investing in bitcoin in fractional quantities without worrying about securing or storing it.
- Transparency: ETFs disclose holdings regularly, reducing counterparty risks present when investing through crypto intermediaries.
- Lower volatility: Bitcoin ETF prices tend to be slightly smoother compared to bitcoin’s volatility since authorized participants can create/redeem in kind through ETF baskets.
- Improved liquidity: Bitcoin ETFs trade on major stock exchanges, improving liquidity for retail investors.
While the convenience comes for a small management fee, spot bitcoin ETFs have enabled Main Street investors to participate in the crypto market rally in a regulated framework. No wonder trading volumes have exploded as per the LSEG data.
As the ETF industry expands its crypto offerings, more investors are likely to get comfortable allocating a portion of their portfolios to digital asset exposure.
Impact of Bitcoin Halving on Price and Supply
Bitcoin halving is an event built into Bitcoin’s protocol by its creator Satoshi Nakamoto to control supply. Currently, 900 bitcoins are mined per day, with miners being rewarded with 6.25 new bitcoins for each block mined.
The code is such that every 210,000 blocks (roughly 4 years), the mining reward is cut in half to control supply. This would lower the daily bitcoin production to 450 per day post halving.
Here are some key effects of bitcoin halving:
- With supply growth slowing down while adoption is surging, basic economics suggests prices could rise as demand outpaces supply. The previous two halvings have witnessed strong bull rallies.
- Bitcoin’s inflation rate will drop to ~1.8% after the halving, just below gold’s inflation rate. This hardcoded supply limit makes it attractive as an anti-inflationary asset.
- With the block reward falling from 6.25 BTC currently to 3.125 BTC, profitability for miners will be impacted. Less efficient miners may shut down, increasing industry consolidation.
- The rate of new supply entering is cut in half every 4 years while demand growth continues exponentially. This lengthening supply-demand mismatch creates scarcity over time.
The upcoming halving in April 2024 is a major factor fueling the current FOMO among investors who want to accumulate bitcoin ahead of the supply shock. This trend will likely continue through the event, pointing to an exciting few months ahead.
FAQs about Bitcoin’s Rally Above $60,000
Has bitcoin ever crossed $60,000 before?
Yes, bitcoin first crossed $60,000 in March 2021 and hit an all-time high of $68,991 in November 2021 before declining in 2022. The current rally is the fastest rise since December 2020.
What was bitcoin’s price 1 year back?
In February 2023, bitcoin was trading around $35,000, nearly 70% below current 2024 levels. The cryptocurrency had declined through most of 2022 due to macro turmoil.
How many bitcoins are left to be mined?
Out of a maximum supply of 21 million bitcoins, around 19 million or 90% have been mined already as per Blockchain data. The remaining 2 million coins will take over 100 years to mine due to the protocol’s supply controls.
Which bitcoin ETF has seen the highest inflows?
The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) has attracted the most assets under management so far at $1.2 billion, followed by the Valkyrie Bitcoin Strategy ETF at $1.17 billion, as of February 2024.
What is the minimum amount required to invest in bitcoin ETFs?
Most brokerages allow investing in fractional bitcoin ETF shares, so technically the minimum is as low as $1. For example, the Valkyrie Bitcoin Strategy ETF trades around $28 currently, so one can invest $28 to buy a single share.
How much electricity does bitcoin mining consume?
Estimates for bitcoin’s total energy consumption vary widely from 50 terawatt-hours to 125 terawatt-hours annually. This is comparable to electricity use by small countries like Greece or Bangladesh.
Which country has the most bitcoin mining activity?
China accounted for over 75% of global bitcoin mining in 2019 before regulatory curbs. The US is now emerging as the new hub, with Kazakhstan, Russia, Iran, and Canada also housing significant mining capacity.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s breach of $60,000 after 16 months signals a new phase of price discovery is underway. The launch of spot bitcoin ETFs has been the big catalyst, allowing mainstream investors to partake in the crypto rally within a regulated structure.
With the bitcoin halving also approaching in April 2024, the narrative has shifted from ‘crypto winter’ to renewed optimism around adoption and growth of digital assets. While pullbacks are likely from time to time, Bitcoin seems well-placed to take on its all-time highs and potentially set the stage for a fresh bull market cycle.
Disclaimer:
This blog post should not be taken as financial advice. Cryptocurrency investing involves high risk and readers should always do their own research before investing.
Articles written by CryptoWini contributors are for informational and educational purposes only, not investment or financial advice. Trading and investing carries substantial financial risk and readers should seek the advice of financial professionals before transacting.
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